At the October 22, 2024, Massachusetts Board of Higher Education (BHE) meeting, Commissioner Ortega and members of his team presented preliminary data on fall 2024 enrollment levels, as well as a landscape view of student success outcome trends by segment, including through an equity lens. After nearly a decade of declining undergraduate enrollment—initially driven by expected demographic shifts in the state and later worsened by the 2020 coronavirus pandemic—the Massachusetts public higher education system is now experiencing its second consecutive fall term of growth. This is primarily driven by community college enrollment increases following the continued implementation and expansion of free community college in the Commonwealth. Yet, using data on outcomes of earlier entering cohorts, the report to the BHE underscored the need for additional support to ensure that students not only enroll in postsecondary education but also complete their academic programs.
Enrollment Trends
Enrollment at System Level
According to the latest data on fall undergraduate enrollment in the Massachusetts public higher education system, collected as preliminary estimates earlier this month, fall 2024 undergraduate enrollment is up +6.5% from fall 2023, totaling 162,930. In this second fall of enrollment increases after nine years of demographic- and pandemic-driven declines, fall 2024 system enrollment is up +9.7% over fall 2022.
Enrollment in Community Colleges
Most of the system’s growth this fall is driven by substantial enrollment increases at the community colleges following the expansion of free community college in Massachusetts to students of all ages. The community college segment’s enrollment of 77,226 represents a gain of 9,482 students, or +14.0%, in fall 2024 compared to fall 2023. Among new community college students, who entered as first-time college students or as new transfer students at their institutions, the fall-over-fall increase was even higher at +25.8% (4,417 students). Also notable is that every one of the 15 community colleges showed some degree of enrollment growth. Compared to the low point of the fall 2022 term, after which free community college implementation began with students aged 25 and older, fall 2024 community college enrollment has increased +23.9% overall and +40.5% among new students.
Enrollment in State Universities
At the nine state universities, undergraduate enrollment has reached 31,860, an increase of 379 students, or +1.2%, this fall. This is the segment’s first overall increase since fall 2013. In addition, new student enrollment, again defined as the population of first-time freshmen and new transfer students, is up +2.1% over fall 2023 and +4.8% over fall 2022.
Enrollment in University of Massachusetts
At the four University of Massachusetts (UMass) undergraduate campuses, where the pandemic had the smallest impact on enrollment among the three segments, undergraduate enrollment is flat at 53,844 (+0.1% compared to fall 2023), and new student enrollment is down -2.6%.
Student Success Outcome Trends
This report focuses on trends in five of the student success metrics used to track progress on the Strategic Plan for Racial Equity (SPRE), which was received by the BHE in June 2022:
- First-Year Progress Metrics: Leading indicators of momentum built in a student's first year, which tend to be indicative of positive long-term outcomes in postsecondary education
- On-Time Credit Accumulation: Percentage of full-time students completing 24 or more credits or part-time students completing 12 or more credits in their first year. Cohort: New first-time, degree-seeking students in Massachusetts community colleges and state universities.
- Persistence to 2nd Fall: Percentage of full- and part-time students still enrolled anywhere in the next fall term after their initial fall term of enrollment. Cohort: New first-time and new transfer degree-seeking students in Massachusetts public colleges and universities.
- Long-Term Success Metrics: Lagging indicators of successful postsecondary outcomes, which take four to six years to measure depending on the metric
- Transfer to Baccalaureate: Percentage of full- and part-time students at community colleges transferring to any four-year institution within four years. Cohort: New first-time and new transfer degree-seeking students in Massachusetts community colleges.
- Completion After Transfer: Percentage of full- and part-time students who graduate from a state university or UMass within four years after transferring from a Massachusetts community college. Cohort: New transfer students who transferred from a Massachusetts community college.
- Completion Anywhere: Percentage of full- and part-time students completing a degree or certificate anywhere in the U.S. within six years. Cohort: New first-time and new transfer degree-seeking students in Massachusetts public colleges and universities.
The BHE set goals for these metrics at their June 2023 meeting, to be achieved by 2033, informed by historical and recent data. The October 2024 report reviewed the goals, baseline data, and the outcomes of two to three additional cohorts that entered after the baseline was set. For the long-term success metrics, the most recent cohorts in the report entered in fall 2017 (Completion Anywhere) and fall 2019 (Transfer to Baccalaureate, Completion After Transfer), so these metrics do not yet speak to outcomes for students who entered public higher education within the last few years.
The BHE goals include specific targets to be reached by each of the segments, as well as system-level targets. In the spirit of Targeted Universalism, goals are intended to be met or exceeded not only for the entire cohort in the aggregate, but also for any subgroup examined within the system or segment. This approach lends itself to the development of targeted strategies, such as culturally competent wraparound services, to support any given student group in meeting the established goal.
Student Success at System Level
The key metric of SPRE is the percentage of new students (full- and part-time) entering Massachusetts public higher education who ultimately complete a degree anywhere in the United States within six years. At the system level, while this rate had been gradually increasing for the cohorts that entered between 2012 and 2015, it has since begun to flatten, during a period of COVID pandemic disruptions. The most recent rate shows 55.1% of new undergraduate students who entered a Massachusetts public higher education institution in fall 2017 had completed a degree by 2023. The 2033 goal for this metric at the system level is 60%.
Student Success in Community Colleges
The community college segment’s long-term transfer and completion rates have been flat or declining slightly, with the most recent rates sitting at 20.0% for transfer, measured four years from initial enrollment, and 34.0% for degree and certificate completion, measured six years from initial enrollment. First-year leading indicators, however, are showing improvement, suggesting that advances in the long-term metrics may be on the horizon as newer cohorts progress toward completion.
Disaggregating student success metrics by race, ethnicity, and income level (i.e., Pell Grant eligibility) status within the community college segment reveals positive outcomes for some groups; however, significant gaps remain, with Black or African American, Hispanic or Latino, and low-income students needing further support to reach 2033 goals.
Detailed community college findings
- The percentage of community college students completing anywhere within six years has been flat since the fall 2012 entering cohort, with 34.0% of the most recent cohort (entered in fall 2017) completing by 2023, six percentage points below the 40% community college segment goal for 2033.
- The percentage of students transferring to a four-year institution has declined slightly during the period of COVID disruption, reaching a rate of 20.0% of students who entered community colleges in fall 2019 transferring by 2023, five percentage points below the 2033 segment goal of 25%.
- Turning to the shorter-term, leading indicators, persistence to a second year declined at the onset of the pandemic but has recently rebounded to the pre-COVID level. Of the most recent cohort, which entered in fall 2022, 60.6% were still enrolled anywhere in fall 2023. The 2033 segment goal for this metric is 65%.
- The trend in on-time credit accumulation, meanwhile, has been positive. The rate for the fall 2022 entering cohort was 33.2%, an increase of 11 percentage points since the fall 2012 cohort, now sitting 7 percentage points below the 40% segment goal for 2033.
- Disaggregating the same set of metrics by race and ethnicity reveals that, while student success outcomes for White community college students are currently at or near the 2033 goals, significant increases are still needed for Black or African American and Hispanic or Latino outcomes, with increases ranging from 7 to 16 percentage points needed to meet the 2033 goals.
- Disaggregating the same set of metrics by whether or not students received Pell Grants, which are generally awarded to students from lower-income families, the metrics for each group are trending in similar directions, but completion, transfer, and on-time credit accumulation outcomes for students who received Pell Grants are further from the goals, with increases of 6 to 13 percentage points needed to meet the same 2033 goals for the Pell Grant recipient group.
Student Success in State Universities
Within the state university segment, long-term completion rates have been declining, with 69.0% of students who entered in 2017 completing a degree within six years, down from 72.9% of students who entered in 2012. There have also been significant declines in first-year momentum metrics, which began prior to but worsened during the pandemic.
In terms of equity in outcomes, while all groups have seen challenges, disparities have deepened for Black or African American and Hispanic or Latino students, whose completion rates are now further from the 2033 goals than those of White students. Pell Grant recipients similarly show lower outcomes relative to non-Pell Grant students, with all metrics underscoring the need for targeted equity-focused efforts.
Detailed state university findings
- After reaching its recent peak of 73.7% for the cohort that entered in fall 2014 and completed by 2020, there have been steady declines in the completion anywhere rate for students who enroll in state universities. The most recent cohort, which was tracked from entry in fall 2017 to completion by 2023, had a completion rate of 69.0%, 11 percentage points below the 80% state university segment goal for 2033.
- Even more concerning are the downward trends in the first-year progress metrics, which tend to be predictive of completion, since the same point in time. For the cohort that entered in fall 2014, 89.9% were still enrolled anywhere in fall 2015; for the cohort that entered in fall 2022, the rate has reached a low of 83.9%, 6 percentage points below the 90% segment goal for 2033.
- The on-time credit accumulation rate dropped from 78.2% for the cohort whose first year was 2012–2013, to a low of 64.3% for the cohort whose first year was 2021–2022. The rate has rebounded slightly since then, however, climbing to 67.2% for the cohort whose first year was 2023–2024 but measuring 13 percentage points below the segment goal of 80% for 2033.
- The rate of completion of students who transferred from community colleges, however, has been increasing slightly, from 55.8% for the cohort that entered in fall 2012 and completed by 2016, to 59.9% for the cohort that entered in fall 2019 and completed by 2023. This rate is 5 percentage points below the 2033 segment goal of 65%.
- The downward trends that were apparent at the segment level are also apparent in the disaggregated views, but with respect to Black or African American and Hispanic or Latino student outcomes, the declines are steeper and the most recent rates are further from the 2033 goals than the most recent White student outcomes. For completion anywhere, the most recent outcomes for White students are 7 percentage points below the 2033 segment goal of 80%, and the outcomes for Black or African American and Hispanic or Latino are both 21 percentage points below the 80% goal. Other metrics require increases of 3 to 7 percentage points for White student outcomes to reach the 2033 goals, and increases of 8 to 30 percentage points for Black or African American and Hispanic or Latino student outcomes to reach the 2033 goals.
- Comparing students who received Pell Grants and students who did not, once again the downward trends for each subgroup are similar, and the outcomes for students who received Pell Grants are further from the goals than those for students who did not receive a Pell Grant. For on-time credit accumulation, outcomes for students who did not receive Pell Grants are 9 percentage points from the 80% segment goal, while outcomes for Pell recipient students are 25 percentage points below the 80% goal. Other metrics require increases of 1 to 3 percentage points for non-Pell Grant students and 8 to 17 percentage points for Pell recipient students to meet the 2033 goals.
Student Success in University of Massachusetts
Within the UMass segment, the most recent overall completion rate is 77.4% and has remained flat since the 2012 cohort, as have persistence rates. The completion rate of students who transferred in from Massachusetts community colleges, however, has increased dramatically in the past decade.
The UMass segment shows stability in overall trends across racial, ethnic, and socioeconomic groups, with marked improvements for community college transfer students. Nonetheless, Black or African American, Hispanic or Latino, and Pell-recipient students will require focused support to reach goals for persistence and completion by 2033.
Detailed University of Massachusetts findings
- The completion anywhere rate has remained flat since the 2012 cohort. In the most recent cohort, which entered in fall 2017, 77.4% of students completed by 2023, 8 percentage points below the UMass segment goal of 85% for 2033.
- Similarly, the rate of persistence to a second year was relatively flat from the 2012 through 2018 cohorts, hovering around 90–91%. It declined to a low of 88.3% during the pandemic with the cohort that entered in fall 2020 but has risen to 88.9% for the most recent cohort who entered in fall 2022. This rate is 6 percentage points below the 95% segment goal for 2033.
- There is a very positive trend in the rate of completion of students who transferred from community colleges, which has increased 10 percentage points in a decade and has reached the 2033 segment target of 65%.
- The trend lines for each subgroup are similar to the overall UMass trends, including the significant increases in completion rates of community college transfer students. However, on all metrics, more work is needed for Black or African American and Hispanic or Latino student outcomes to reach the 2033 goals, especially on overall completion rates, where increases of 19 and 17 percentage points, respectively, are needed to reach the 85% segment goal.
- All metrics are near or above goal for students who did not receive a Pell Grant. For students who received a Pell Grant, more work is needed, particularly in persistence and overall completion, where reaching the 2033 segment goals will require increases of 8 and 13 percentage points, respectively.
- DHE does not have the data available to report on on-time credit accumulation within the UMass segment.
Looking Ahead
As the Massachusetts public higher education system moves forward, tracking and improving student success outcomes remains a central commitment. There is much work needed to meet BHE’s 2033 goals, close remaining equity gaps, and ensure that all students have the resources needed to succeed and thrive in their educational journey. It will require sustained collaboration and investment. Each step brings us closer to a future where every student’s success is both achievable and celebrated.
Published October 22, 2024. Updated January 21, 2025, to include student success analysis from October BHE meeting.
